[BC] My prediction for the future
Clive Warner
clive
Fri Jul 8 21:34:09 CDT 2005
I was just meditating on the concepts of computing power and bandwidth
>From Intel's site:
"In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore saw the future. His prediction,
popularly known as Moore's Law, states that the number of transistors on a
chip doubles about every two years."
Assuming a linear relationship only, then computing power doubles every two
years.
Now we know that vast amounts of bandwidth are available subject only to the
ability of data processing devices or 'exchanges' to deliver that bandwidth
to the customer.
Certainly 2Mb/s is available over copper; to go much faster than that will
involve extending fibre to the consumer's residence, feasible in urban and
suburban areas.
My own bandwidth recently doubled from 256 to 512, for free. Why is the
telecomm company doing that? At the very least it implies that they have
bandwidth to throw around costing virtually nothing.
It seems to me, that bandwidth, since it is fundamentally linked to data
processing and not to media bandwidth, will therefore obey the same set of
physics constraints as data processing.
Given that human bandwidth is not subject to improvement, and that existing
bandwidth is pretty near satisfying the human requirement (we still need to
add tactile and oral), then storage will become the dominant factor, I
suspect.
Time to invest in memory companies?
I don't think the implications are good for radio.
Not radio as we know it, Jim.
IBOC and DRM is just the first step in an inevitable process that will see
'radio' as we know it, cease to exist.
Instead, radio facilities will become giant transceivers in large-area
wireless networks.
AM of course will cease to exist as its bandwidth won't compete.
Clive
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