[BC] Satellite Radio, I don't get the math

[Tom Bosscher]

	We have a large number of pro sat radio folks on this board. Many are 
dissing the hand that feeds their mouth. I have no trouble with that. 
Right to free speech and all that.

	But. I am having trouble with my math. I just went on line to check 
some numbers:

	Sirius, lost 180 million this past 3rd quarter, compared to 169 million 
a year ago. Since the number of subs is up, they must be spending a lot 
of money, somewhere.

	If you take 180 million, divide by three months, divide again by $ 
13.00 a month, my math says that Sirius needs 4.6 MILLION additional 
subscribers to break even. Will Stern do it? I don't think so. And by 
the way, thats 4.6 million, full paying subs. No freebies, no $ 60 for 
the year specials.

	Now XM. They lost 131.9 million this past quarter, compared to 118.0 
million last year. Huh?

	131.9 mill divide by 3 months, divide by $ 13.00, and they need 3.38 
million full paying subscribers to break even.

	Whats wrong with my math?


	Bosco's prediction:

	Sirius will tank by the end of the second quarter of 2006, as Stern 
will not bring enough full paying subs on line.

	XM stock will be way down by the same time. The pyramid
is rocky.

	tom bosscher