[BC] IBOC Query

[Phil Alexander]

On 3 Feb 2006 at 10:23, Rich Wood wrote:

> Actually, the number I saw was greater than 1.5 billion but I didn't 
> see how it was possible. A second source claimed 1.5 billion and it 
> seemed much more reasonable. Maybe it was radio promotional puff like 
> the recent broker's research we all laughed at. I don't really care 
> which figure we use. I'll go with your 550 million, even though I 
> think it's low. 

Looking over the numbers, I'd credit anything up to 750 million although
that is over 2.5 sets for every man, woman and child in the country.

> To our manufacturers here - how 
> long will it take to replace that many receivers (once small devices 
> are available) with IBUZ receivers? We're going to have to come very 
> close to that figure to have enough of the population equipped to 
> duplicate the existing analog audience. If we don't, we won't need 
> sales departments in our stations.

The automotive sector will replace about 1/3 of the total, about 250
million, in roughly the next 10 years, and that is surely the most
vital 1/3 of the total. During the same time period the "table" /
boombox / otherwise portable etc. will, in constant dollars, approach
essentially today's prices for similar sets, thus it is a question of
turnover in the non-automotive sector. Assuming another 1/3 there in
10 years, that leaves 250 million sets that won't be replaced until
they don't work. When is that? I don't think we know yet. To some
extent, it depends on the buzz level, which we now know is significant.

It is possible that broadcasters themselves may agitate for an analog
sunset so they can increase power. Guessing, I'd put that point at
about 2020-2025 with at least another 5 years for the FCC to make up its
collective mind - assuming there is an FCC in the year 2025.


Phil Alexander, CSRE, AMD
Broadcast Engineering Services and Technology 
(a Div. of Advanced Parts Corporation) 
Ph. (317) 335-2065   FAX (317) 335-9037



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