[BC] The number of listeners

[Rich Wood]

------ At 01:36 AM 6/28/2006, Glen Kippel wrote: -------

>Yes, Arbitron says the percentage of PUR is about 27%, even in the 
>best of dayparts.  (Overnight is obviously far lower.)  So, assuming 
>a TSA population of one million, there may be 270,000 listening in 
>morning drive.  In a market that size, I would expect that a 5 share 
>would be pretty good.  That would result in 13,500 people listening 
>to that station.  Hardly "mass media."  There are too many stations, 
>and too many media choices, for any station to reach more than a 
>handful of the total population any more.

Have no fear. There are thousands more on the horizon to share the 
shares that already can't be sold. HD2 and HD3 will make Docket 80-90 
look like we added just a station or two. Let's say the IBUZ 
revolution happens within the predicted 5 years. There are about 
9,000 FM stations, so we can expect 18,000 new radio stations to 
compete for advertising dollars. I'm going to ask my ad agency 
friends if they're going to bump up their budgets to handle 27,000 FM 
stations, plus the existing 4,500 AMs without reducing what stations 
are currently getting.

I also wonder if the awesome new voicetracked jukebox formats and the 
huge promotional efforts will increase the PUR to 81%. I'm sure 
listeners who know absolutely nothing about IBUZ will do their part 
to make the revolution a success. Using $200 million in inventory to 
reach the additional 54% of persons not using radio puzzles me a 
little. I always thought you had to hear a promo or spot in order to 
respond to it. I have faith it'll happen.

I'm also amazed at how well retailers are handling the massive lines 
at their stores. They're keeping them out of sight so as not to scare 
off additional masses who don't like to wait in lines. After all, to 
meet the five year estimate we have to design, manufacture and 
distribute about 600 million iPod sized receivers (based on 2 
receivers per person) within that time. I figure 3 years in the 
design to distribution phase, then 2 years of dropping receivers from 
planes to get the required audience.

The only way I can imagine doing this and collecting money for 
receivers (important for royalties) is to mobilize the Red Cross and 
other disaster relief organizations. The added advantage is that they 
know how to handle and bandage unruly crowds who will be fighting 
each other for a receiver. It'll make Filene's basement in Boston 
look like a refined ladies tea party.

I have it on good authority that cynics who believe were talking 
about withdrawing troops before the election to avoid a Republican 
bloodbath are wrong. Cheney and Rumsfeld want to get out of Iraq so 
they can get the next two wars (Iran & North Korea) finished in time 
to redeploy the National Guard to handle the inevitable riots at IBUZ 
retail locations. it'll be tight but they think they can do it.

After all, revolutions aren't pretty. There's lots of buzz in the 
industry about it.

Rich