[BC] IBOC

[Phil Alexander]

On 12 Jul 2005 at 10:04, Scott Cason wrote:

> Again, I don't understand this prevailing attitude that everybody MUST put
> an IBOC signal on the air NOW.  "It seems to this reporter".....that IBOC is
> like FM stereo.  Put it on the air when you get ready to and don't worry
> about what the other guys are doing.  

It is a problem generated by Ibiquity as a marketing ploy, and
to generate badly needed cash flow until sets start rolling out
about a year from now. The present price for the license is IIRC 
$7,500 and there is an escalation in steps to $25,000 in 2008.

Until the FCC issues a Final Report and Order in 99-325, which 
is what will happen after all the comments about NRSC-5 are 
digested, it won't be clear how they address the "sole source" 
issue WRT using ONLY Ibiquity HD.

The reason for the rush is that Ibiquity is trying to get 
around the "chicken and egg" problem that plagued AM stereo 
and eventually killed it for all practical purposes. They
are not interested in marginal stations staying on the air,
they want stations NOW so they can sell set licenses by the
millions.

The other reason for moving soon after the dust settles is
that IBOC/HD/whatever is only a stepping stone to full
digital broadcasting. The IBOC RM is only the first shoe
to drop. The second will fall when the FCC permits full digital
emissions that will only be decoded by IBOC radios. Since
the radio market is primarily a mobile market, the time frame
on this depends on the economy more than anything else. When
the economy is good the vehicle scrap rate goes up.

IMHO, when the cars without IBOC represent only about 20-25% of 
the US fleet, you can expect the FCC to open another RM about 
digital audio broadcasting, looking at rules for full digital 
broadcasting. Depending on listener demand for IBOC after it 
becomes generally known by the public, and the state of the 
economy over the next few years, that point may be anything 
from 6 to 9 years in the future, with another 2-3 years tacked 
on for the RM which will result in full digital broadcasting. 
Here's the rub. Digital broadcasting will not be compatible 
with analog because the intention appears to be moving the 
digital subcarriers into the same spectrum now occupied by 
analog sidebands and increase the power perhaps 10 dB or more.

There is a very good guideline to the time this takes in the
X-band transition. From the start, it took about 10 years to
convert nearly all the US automotive fleet to radios that
tuned the entire band from 530 to 1700. If the economy is
better this will be slightly shorter and if there is a lengthy
recession during the period, it will be extended somewhat.

Since the "leading edge" of IBOC sets will move into the fleet
next year, I think it's reasonable to expect the next RM about
2013 and a transition to full digital around 2015 or 2016.

It may seem like a long time, but 10 years goes by quickly.
Small stations need to be making long term plans because they
won't be able to handle the cost otherwise. Some, especially
the AM's that are marginal now, probably won't make it, and
LPFM's are a big question mark because the equipment and 
license will be out of reach of their resources in many cases.
LPFM is a nice idea, but it is essentially incompatible with
IBOC, and may be incompatible with full digital because there
will be pressure to expand channel bandwidth for alternate
services in full digital operations that will be permanently
incompatible with analog LPFM.

Since the deadline has passed for this year for getting a
license from Ibiquity for $5,000, it seems sensible to wait 
until the FCC issues the full set of rules before doing 
anything more than getting quotes to access the costs of
plant conversion, and defer decisions until the first quarter
of next year. Directional stations may require special 
engineering consideration, and this needs to be assessed as
soon as possible because the conversion to IBOC may be 
problematic if the station has a "tight" array. My advice
to clients is that it is probably not time to act yet, but
this is something that needs to be in the middle of their
radar screen because it is not going away.


Phil Alexander, CSRE, AMD
Broadcast Engineering Services and Technology 
(a Div. of Advanced Parts Corporation) 
Ph. (317) 335-2065   FAX (317) 335-9037





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