[BC] From NAB Newsletter

[Rich Wood]

------ At 05:03 AM 7/18/2006, Robert Orban wrote: -------

>Thanks to cellphone developments over the last 20 years, 
>semiconductor manufacturers now know how to make very low power 
>digital receivers and DSP. There is no reason why they can't 
>leverage these techniques to IBOC. It's not going to take another 20 years.

No one's questioning that the technological capability is there. The 
real problem is that the consumers aren't. 600-800 million 
replacement receivers (a conservative estimate) for people who see no 
need. The suggestion that the "IBUZ Revolution" will be complete in 5 
years would be hysterically funny if it weren't so deceptive. You, of 
all people, know the lead time to design, manufacture and distribute 
a new product. Mike Bergman of Kenwood says about 3 years. That 
leaves two years to sell 600-800 million receivers. We'll have to 
raid every used car dealership to get enough salespeople willing to 
push this product. They're the only ones who'll be able to sleep 
nights doing it.

I'm going on four months since the first IBUZ receiver appeared in a 
store in Western MA. Still, only three have been sold - all to radio 
people. Not a single "civilian" non-radio person has even asked about 
them. Only a single "HD Radio Ready" car receiver is available. The 
required external tuner is not stocked. They stock every satellite 
service tuner for every brand available.

I believe it's going to take longer than 20 years to have enough 
receivers in the hands of diary-filling listeners to be valuable to 
advertisers. I don't believe the average listener is going climb up 
on his roof and install an antenna to listen to "regular radio." 
Unfortunately, the only receiver I can buy today, plug in and hear a 
high power, close-in station out of the box is the BA Receptor.

Have you heard any manufacturer with a pocket-sized receiver on the 
drawing board? Without that low power chip available in large 
quantities, who's likely to design a receiver not even knowing what 
the pinouts are likely to be? Is anyone you know of designing either 
the chip or a receiver to use it? Thanks to satellite radio the price 
point is $99 often with a $50 rebate. The big box stores won't have 
them until that price point is reached. In this market, the only 
retailer carrying the BA Receptor is Tweeter. That doesn't come from 
consumer demand. It comes from a deal between Tweeter and Boston 
Acoustics. In the store, the radio is deaf unless connected to the 
rooftop antenna. The Yamaha AV receiver receives everything even with 
the BA rat tail antenna deep in the bowels of the store.

This is going to be AM Stereo all over again, only faster. Some WiFi 
technology, I believe will leapfrog IBUZ and marinas will be 
inundated with IBUZ receivers camouflaged as boat anchors.

With the FCC bowing to the manufacturer's will and delaying nighttime 
operation I believe AM IBUZ is a dead issue. It MUST be 24/7 or we'll 
have the equivalent of Black and White TV after sunset. For FM, where 
will the advertising dollars come from for 7,000 new radio stations? 
All it'll do is lower the rates of existing inventory. A "Dollar a 
Holler" will be reality even in major markets.

Remember CDs. How many manufacturers were on the bandwagon quickly? I 
had a CD player before there were any CDs to play on it. Same with 
DVDs. Same with cell phones. Unique new technology that pushed the 
state of the art forward fast.

Rich