[BC] From NAB Newsletter
Robert Meuser
Robertm
Tue Jul 18 09:34:47 CDT 2006
Rich:
I don't know who is quoting 5 years but Glynn Walden the father of IBOC
can be quoted as saying "not in our lifetime".
R
Rich Wood wrote:
> ------ At 05:03 AM 7/18/2006, Robert Orban wrote: -------
>
>> Thanks to cellphone developments over the last 20 years,
>> semiconductor manufacturers now know how to make very low power
>> digital receivers and DSP. There is no reason why they can't leverage
>> these techniques to IBOC. It's not going to take another 20 years.
>
>
> No one's questioning that the technological capability is there. The
> real problem is that the consumers aren't. 600-800 million replacement
> receivers (a conservative estimate) for people who see no need. The
> suggestion that the "IBUZ Revolution" will be complete in 5 years
> would be hysterically funny if it weren't so deceptive. You, of all
> people, know the lead time to design, manufacture and distribute a new
> product. Mike Bergman of Kenwood says about 3 years. That leaves two
> years to sell 600-800 million receivers. We'll have to raid every used
> car dealership to get enough salespeople willing to push this product.
> They're the only ones who'll be able to sleep nights doing it.
>
> I'm going on four months since the first IBUZ receiver appeared in a
> store in Western MA. Still, only three have been sold - all to radio
> people. Not a single "civilian" non-radio person has even asked about
> them. Only a single "HD Radio Ready" car receiver is available. The
> required external tuner is not stocked. They stock every satellite
> service tuner for every brand available.
>
> I believe it's going to take longer than 20 years to have enough
> receivers in the hands of diary-filling listeners to be valuable to
> advertisers. I don't believe the average listener is going climb up on
> his roof and install an antenna to listen to "regular radio."
> Unfortunately, the only receiver I can buy today, plug in and hear a
> high power, close-in station out of the box is the BA Receptor.
>
> Have you heard any manufacturer with a pocket-sized receiver on the
> drawing board? Without that low power chip available in large
> quantities, who's likely to design a receiver not even knowing what
> the pinouts are likely to be? Is anyone you know of designing either
> the chip or a receiver to use it? Thanks to satellite radio the price
> point is $99 often with a $50 rebate. The big box stores won't have
> them until that price point is reached. In this market, the only
> retailer carrying the BA Receptor is Tweeter. That doesn't come from
> consumer demand. It comes from a deal between Tweeter and Boston
> Acoustics. In the store, the radio is deaf unless connected to the
> rooftop antenna. The Yamaha AV receiver receives everything even with
> the BA rat tail antenna deep in the bowels of the store.
>
> This is going to be AM Stereo all over again, only faster. Some WiFi
> technology, I believe will leapfrog IBUZ and marinas will be inundated
> with IBUZ receivers camouflaged as boat anchors.
>
> With the FCC bowing to the manufacturer's will and delaying nighttime
> operation I believe AM IBUZ is a dead issue. It MUST be 24/7 or we'll
> have the equivalent of Black and White TV after sunset. For FM, where
> will the advertising dollars come from for 7,000 new radio stations?
> All it'll do is lower the rates of existing inventory. A "Dollar a
> Holler" will be reality even in major markets.
>
> Remember CDs. How many manufacturers were on the bandwagon quickly? I
> had a CD player before there were any CDs to play on it. Same with
> DVDs. Same with cell phones. Unique new technology that pushed the
> state of the art forward fast.
>
> Rich
>
>
>
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